American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Houston 95.0%   7   23 - 8 13 - 5 23 - 8 13 - 5 +13.7      +6.6 30 +7.1 21 64.2 298 +12.1 32 +12.2 1
39 Wichita St. 83.0%   10   23 - 8 11 - 7 23 - 8 11 - 7 +10.6      +2.4 109 +8.2 9 71.5 105 +11.6 33 +9.5 4
44 Cincinnati 100.0%   10   20 - 10 13 - 5 20 - 10 13 - 5 +10.1      +4.6 57 +5.5 44 68.4 198 +9.8 50 +12.2 2
55 Connecticut 2.6%   19 - 12 10 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 8 +8.9      +4.5 59 +4.4 62 69.4 165 +7.4 73 +7.6 6
57 Memphis 35.5%   21 - 10 10 - 8 21 - 10 10 - 8 +8.6      -0.9 206 +9.5 4 79.3 16 +9.4 55 +8.2 5
75 Tulsa 1.3%   21 - 10 13 - 5 21 - 10 13 - 5 +6.9      +0.5 169 +6.3 34 64.7 290 +8.6 61 +12.1 3
86 SMU 0.0%   19 - 11 9 - 9 19 - 11 9 - 9 +6.1      +6.9 26 -0.8 202 62.3 331 +6.5 82 +5.6 7
107 Temple 0.0%   14 - 17 6 - 12 14 - 17 6 - 12 +4.5      -0.9 204 +5.3 51 72.6 82 +3.7 121 +1.8 10
115 South Florida 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 11 14 - 17 7 - 11 +3.9      -1.0 208 +4.9 56 62.6 328 +2.5 132 +3.9 8
117 Central Florida 0.0%   15 - 15 7 - 11 15 - 15 7 - 11 +3.8      +0.9 157 +2.8 88 67.7 219 +2.8 127 +2.9 9
179 Tulane 0.0%   12 - 18 4 - 14 12 - 18 4 - 14 -0.6      -0.4 190 -0.2 185 69.8 152 -0.1 174 -1.6 12
202 East Carolina 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 13 11 - 20 5 - 13 -2.1      -1.7 226 -0.3 190 73.7 64 -3.1 219 +0.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Wichita St. 4.0 100.0
Cincinnati 1.0 100.0
Connecticut 5.0 100.0
Memphis 5.0 100.0
Tulsa 1.0 100.0
SMU 7.0 100.0
Temple 10.0 100.0
South Florida 8.0 100.0
Central Florida 8.0 100.0
Tulane 12.0 100.0
East Carolina 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 13 - 5 100.0
Wichita St. 11 - 7 100.0
Cincinnati 13 - 5 100.0
Connecticut 10 - 8 100.0
Memphis 10 - 8 100.0
Tulsa 13 - 5 100.0
SMU 9 - 9 100.0
Temple 6 - 12 100.0
South Florida 7 - 11 100.0
Central Florida 7 - 11 100.0
Tulane 4 - 14 100.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Wichita St.
Cincinnati 100.0% 100.0
Connecticut
Memphis
Tulsa 100.0% 100.0
SMU
Temple
South Florida
Central Florida
Tulane
East Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 95.0% 0.0% 95.0% 7   0.3 3.9 19.0 29.4 26.4 12.8 3.1 0.2 5.0 95.0%
Wichita St. 83.0% 0.0% 83.0% 10   0.1 0.7 4.6 17.5 34.1 25.1 0.8 17.0 83.0%
Cincinnati 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10   0.0 1.9 10.1 34.5 49.1 4.3
Connecticut 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.8 1.8 0.0 97.4 2.6%
Memphis 35.5% 0.0% 35.5% 0.0 0.3 4.2 25.5 5.5 64.5 35.5%
Tulsa 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4 0.9 98.7 1.3%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 95.0% 0.1% 95.0% 58.5% 24.6% 12.4% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0%
Wichita St. 83.0% 15.0% 75.7% 32.3% 11.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Cincinnati 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 39.8% 13.2% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Connecticut 2.6% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 35.5% 27.3% 20.5% 6.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.2 0.4 12.0 58.1 28.6 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.9 0.7 20.8 63.2 15.0 0.2
2nd Round 85.8% 1.4 14.2 43.1 33.7 8.5 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 43.9% 0.5 56.1 37.0 6.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 20.3% 0.2 79.7 19.1 1.2
Final Four 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.4 0.1
Final Game 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
Champion 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2